ACA Not Expected to Cause a Widespread Increase in Individual Premiums

NewspaperA RAND analysis predicts that the ACA will not lead to a widespread premium increase in the individual health insurance market. However, researchers caution that the cost of policies in will vary among states and will be influenced by individual factors, such as an individual’s age, whether they smoke, and whether they qualify for federal tax credits to help cover the cost.

There is a considerable range among states in the number of people who will remain uninsured under the Affordable Care Act. For 2016, the study’s estimates range from a low of 5% in Minnesota to a high of 12% in Texas. States with larger immigrant populations, such as Texas and Florida, tend to have more uninsured people.

The number of people who buy individual policies under the Affordable Care Act will more than double. In 2016, enrollment in the individual market will rise from 4.3% of the nonelderly to 9.5% of the nonelderly. Small group premiums largely will be unchanged under the Affordable Care Act. For more information, visit

Last Updated 01/19/2022

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